New Blog

So things are changing... dreams are growing... new blog is at https://herenya.co.za/blog/
Check. It. Out!

Is there any value left in this market?

So things and times change; and so do the winners and losers on the stock market. Those stocks who were stellar performers a few years ago do not always stay stellar performers as macro economic circumstances change in favour of other companies, and thus these other companies take the performers of old's place at the top of the ranks. 

I did a very (and I mean very) basic search on the Google finance stock screener (link to it here) and it returned a list of stocks that matched my criteria. Basically I was looking for companies that had EPS growth in excess of 5% over the past 5 and 10 years, an ROE ratio of over 15, a DY higher than 2 and is up over the past 52 weeks. Actually, this is a fairly good set of criteria in my opinion as it isolates companies that are currently, and have been for a decade, growing.

The list of stocks is as follows:

So in they go into my trading universe and the deeper dive into their fundamentals commences. If there is anything I learned from SMBU it's that we have to use technology to our advantage. In other words, stock screeners are the bomb and we need to use them.

Lot's of homework to do on my new list of stocks that I kinda think I might like once I understand them better. 

Things change pretty quick

Well, I don't really know what to say... things change fast. One minute you have a diamond in your hand, then next minute you drop it and it disappears. That however is a metaphor for a situation I don't really want to get into. Life tests our ability to stay resilient, I think. Every time we overcome a challenge, we are presented with a bigger one. This is the nature of life and we need to learn to be ok with it. The bigger the challenges become, the more progress we make in our personal growth. So in a sense we should be grateful that we have these challenges to start off with.

Does the Dow Theory say we can worry yet?

A few months ago I posted about the Dow Theory and how according to it at the time there was not yet anything to worry about. A link to that post can be found HERE. 

In there I looked at the S&P500 and the Russell 2000 and whether they were breaking to new lows roughly at the same time. Well I've still been looking at them and since then, the picture has changed somewhat.

Again based on daily closing prices, the first index to break the lows (which incidentally is no longer the most recent significant low as I am still using the same lows of October 2014) was the Russell 2000.

7 Days ago the Russell 2000 took out the October 2014 lows.

And roughly at the same time (i.e. today), the S&P500 also broke to a new low... temporarily at least.

S&P500 pierced below the lows of October 2014 but managed to close above the level.

Looking closer we see that the lows have not been broken yet, well, not entirely anyway.

Could it perhaps be the hammer of destiny?

Well, ok then. So what now? I think we wait for the weekly candle to close on Friday and we look again once the weekly candles are formed and use those to tell us if this is the making of the greatest hammer formation I have ever seen, or, according to Dow Theory, is the beginning of the end of our 7 year bull market.

5 life lessons from the gym locker room

I've recently started going back to gym and today for the first time in, well, probably 20 years, I made use of the shower facilities at the gym. Not that I have not been at the gym for 20 years, but I have not used the gym locker room and showers for, well okay maybe not 20 years, but definitely more than 10. I have tended to avoid this penis parade for most of my life so far for a few, what are in my opinion, very good reasons. 

Firstly, well, I mean dude, nobody wants to see your junk. Put it away, use a towel, wear underpants, do something. Just get that shit under control and out of my sight please. Secondly, why is everyone looking at me funny because I haven't freed willy? Leave me alone man, I'm not here to make friends or to 'hang out'. Is this some sort of cult that I am refusing to be a part of, or just 'man stuff' that I don't understand? Who cares? Fuck off. It's mine and I'm not comfortable with you looking at it.

Anyway, all that awkwardness out the way, there are some valuable lessons I learned this morning. I am seeing them as lessons in manliness, and I now share them with you:

1. Walk around with your shit all hanging out because that's what men do.
2. Use the word 'oak', or 'oke' a lot. For example: "Okes just leave their bags all over the place boet."
3. Make small talk with people you don't know. Okes love talking to weird naked strangers while they're rubbing cream all on their junk. 
4. Talk about how loose and/or stupid woman are. This is an important one I would imagine, because statements like "chicks are hornier than us oke" and "they can get dick at any time boet, you gotta be careful", or "Sandton chicks are daft oke, they grew up too rich, you must just fuck them and leave them, use them for what they're good for", are met with enthusiastic nodding and varying grunts of general agreement.
5. Tell people how expensive your holiday is going to be. Don't, and I mean DO NOT mention an actual figure of what your holiday is going to cost. In fact, if someone asks you outright, avoid answering this question by any means. Although, you must tell the other okes that is it going to be fantastic and very expensive.

I imagine that as time goes by I will probably learn many more valuable lessons. So as and when I learn them I will keep you updated. For now though, stick to these 5 rules and I think you will survive.

Day in the life of a trader

A little while ago I had the privilege of presenting a JSE Power Hour. To be honest, this was one of the most humbling experiences I have had in my life so far. I am very grateful to have had the opportunity to share some of my journey with people whom it may be able to inspire. 

I have received some feedback that in the video of the presentation on YouTube, the slides are not synchronised with the speech. So if you would like to listen to the presentation while going through the slides, you are welcome to listen to the video below while flipping through the presentation. 

The presentation can be downloaded by clicking on the link below:

Day in the life of trader presentation

And the video can be found here:

Sometimes

Sometimes life gives you something so great that you sit wondering how on earth you could have deserved it. Sometimes it takes from you something that has become the cornerstone of your purpose in an instant. Sometimes you can slowly see that coming. Sometimes you can do nothing about it and choose to bury your head in the sand in an attempt to avoid the inevitable. Sometimes the inevitable is not inevitable. Sometimes things work out better than you expected. Sometimes things work out differently to what you wanted and that turns out to be better than what you were hoping for. Sometimes you have to choose to do what is difficult and uncomfortable in order to get a shot at something that may or may not work. Sometimes it's worth it. Sometimes you need to walk through hell with a brave smile on your face. Sometimes you must choose uncertainty over absolutes. Sometimes it's easy to do that. Sometimes it's not. Sometimes doing things that are out of your character and against your nature is the only way in which you can grow. Sometimes you have to force yourself to grow. Sometimes you have to make incredible sacrifices without knowing if they will ever be made for you in return. Sometimes you just have to take that chance. Sometimes things are worth risking everything for. Sometimes you have to accept that you are not in control. Sometimes you have to give life the space it needs to unfold at its own pace.